SOME QUESTIONS FROM A PREVIOUS FINAL

(As I said in class, I will NOT post the correct answers to these questions. If you have trouble with a question, feel free to ask the TA's or myself any question--except "what is the answer?" So fair questions to us would describe what you think is the answer, why you think that, and why you are not sure or why you don't understand. I want you to get experience struggling with finding the answer for yourself, because that is what you are going to have to do, alone, during the final. Good luck.)

This chart recently appeared in the Los Angeles Times in conjunction with a story describing the poor performance of American high school students in the areas of math and science when compared to similar students from other countries. Students in general take the math and science literacy test, but only college-bound students take the advanced mathematics and physics tests.

To ease your calculation burden: if you treat the mean scores for each country for each test as a sample, the SD for the scores for the three tests are 46.2 for the Mathematics and Science Literacy Test, 34.6 for the Advanced Mathematics Test, and 43.9 for the Physics Test. The means for the three tests are given in the chart.

Assume for the questions below the scattergrams are football shaped.

BELOW AVERAGE

Significantly higher than International average

556

The latest results from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study compare the mathematics and science knowledge of U.S. 12th-graders with those in 20 other countries, and the Achievement of U.S. students taking physics and advanced mathematics with those in 16 other countries. The tests were given in 1994-1995

Not significantly different than International average

556

Significantly lower than International average

556

STUDENTS IN THEIR FINAL YEAR OF SECONDARY SCHOOL

MATHEMATICS & SCIENCE LITERACY

ADVANCED MATHEMATICS

PHYSICS

Country

Mean Achievement*

Country

Mean Achievement*

Country

Mean Achievement*

Netherlands

559

France

557

Norway

581

Sweden

555

Russian Federation

542

Sweden

573

Iceland

541

Switzerland

533

Russian Fed.

545

Norway

536

Denmark

522

Denmark

534

Switzerland

531

Cyprus

518

Slovenia

523

Denmark

528

Lithuania

516

Germany

522

Canada

526

Australia

525

Australia

518

New Zealand

525

Greece

513

Cyprus

494

Austria

519

Sweden

512

Latvia

488

Australia

525

Canada

509

Greece

486

Slovenia

514

Slovenia

475

Switzerland

488

France

505

Italy

474

Canada

485

Germany

496

Czech Republic

469

France

466

Czech Republic

476

Germany

465

Czech Rep.

451

Hungary

477

United States

442

Austria

435

Russian Federation

476

Austria

436

United States

423

Italy

475

 

United States

471

Lithuania

465

Cyprus

447

South Africa

352

International Average

500

International Average

501

International Average

501

*Because of potential statistical error and rounding, some totals may appear inconsistent

 

Looking at this chart, you interpret the scores for Mathematics and Science Literacy as

a. random draws with replacement out of the box containing math and science literacy scores from students in their final year of secondary school as it exists in the world

b. random draws with replacement out of the box containing averages for countries where these tests are administered

c. averages from 21 countries, and they may or may not be all of the elements in the box of means from countries where these tests were administered

d. random draws with replacement out of the box containing scores from students from the 21 countries only

e. either b or c

Look at the scores on the Advanced Mathematics Test. Six countries are shown as having mean achievement scores that are not significantly different from the international average. From a statistical viewpoint, you interpret this to mean:

a. The probability that their deviation from the international average is consistent with chance variation is probably greater than 5%

b. The probability that their deviation from the international average is consistent with chance variation is probably smaller than 5%

c. The size of difference is not big enough to matter

d. There is no difference between these scores and the average that we can attribute to true differences in the population the sample is drawn from

e. There is no difference in scores among these six countries, except for bias

Now look at the mean scores for Australia and Austria on the Mathematics and Science Literacy Test. Austria with a mean of 519 is shown as performing significantly better than average but Australia with a mean of 525 is shown as not significantly different from average. What's going on here?

a. The LA Times made a typo (a mistake) in making this table and the real Australia mean score is probably 515

b. The SE for the average for Austria must be smaller than it is for Australia

c. It's most likely a rounding or statistical error, as the footnote indicates

d. The sample size for Austria is probably smaller than it is for Australia but the SD is bigger

e. The Australian sample has more bias, which is taken into consideration in the statistical test

The correlation for countries where both averages are given seem to vary. For those countries with both test averages reported, mean scores for Mathematics and Science Literacy correlate .16 with Advanced Mathematics mean scores, but Advanced Mathematics means and Physics means correlate .48. What's going on here?

a. There is more variation in Mathematics and Science Literacy scores because there are more countries included in the table

b. When samples are drawn twice from a population in the same manner, you would expect a high correlation between measurements of two similar constructs but when two samples are drawn with different methods from the same population, even if measured on the same construct with the same instrument, the correlation may be low, high, or somewhere in between

c. It is probably due to random variation

d. It is a rounding or statistical error, as suggested in the footnote

e. There is less variation in Mathematics and Science Literacy scores because the sample is bigger and so the estimate is more accurate and thus the correlation is smaller

Latvia is not included in the list of countries reporting scores on the Advanced Mathematics Test. What would you expect its mean score to be?

a. 488, same as its Physics score because the means of the two tests are the same

b. 491, or .3 SD below the mean, because Latvia is .3 SD below the mean on the Physics Test

c. 496, or .144 SD below the mean, because Latvia is .3 SD below the mean on the physics test and the correlation between the two tests is 0.48

d. 501, the average of the averages, because in the absence of any other information our best guess is the mean

e. you can't really make a guess if the information is completely missing like this

The U.S. mean scores are below average on all three tests. If we assume any one country has a 50-50 chance of scoring below average on any one test and that the performance on each of the tests is independent, what is the probability that we would observe the U.S. pattern of performance simply by chance alone?

a. 0.125

b. p = .05

c. impossible to calculate because the tests are different

d. it has to be close to 1.0 because once the U.S. performed poorly on one test, it virtually guaranteed poor performance on the others

e. around 0.5