STAT 13

(Sec. 1a-1c)

Introduction to Statistical Methods for the Life and Health Sciences

Instructor: Ivo Dinov, Asst. Prof.

Departments of Statistics & Neurology

http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~dinov/courses_students.html

HOMEWORK 5

Due Date:

Friday, Feb. 21, 2003, turn in after lecture

See the HW submission rules. On the front page include the following header.

(HW_5_1) The casino game of Tai Sai is played by betting on various possible combinations of results when three dice are rolled. One possibility is to place a bet on a single number. In this case, the more times this number appears on the three dice, the greater the winnings. Here's an example of how it works: Consider a gambler who wishes to bet on the number six. For each dollar bet, the player wins twelve times his/her stake if three sixes are rolled on the three dice, two times his/her stake if two sixes are rolled on the three dice or one times his/her stake if only one six is rolled on the three dice. If no sixes are rolled, then the stake is lost.

Let X be the return from a single bet with a $5 stake. X has the following probability function:

x	-$5	$5	$10	$60
pr(X=x)	0.579	0.347	0.069	0.005

A player will make a profit overall if their mean return from placing a series of bets is positive. Let X_bar be the mean return from 100 separate bets with a $5 stake.

What are the values of E[X_bar] and SE[X_bar]?

What is the approximate distribution of X_bar? What theorem was needed to decide this?

Calculate the probability of, on average, making a positive return from placing one hundred separate bets with $5 stakes.

Repeat the calculations above using 1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 bets.

Create a scatter plot of probability that the mean return from playing Tai Sai is positive (on y-axis) versus number of bets (on x-axis). Comment on what the plot appears to show.

(HW_5_2) Successful TV advertising depends on being able to get viewers to recall the specific brand being advertised. Two groups of randomly selected students are shown the TV ads for 10 products. One groups saw the TV ads with some sexual content, the other saw the TV ads rated for general audience. One week after seeing the ads each students was asked to name the specific brands which they saw on TV. The mean and SD of the number of correct answers for each group are given in the table below.

Calculate SE(X₁_bar - X₂_bar), the standard error of the differences of the sample means for the two groups
Calculate the two standard error interval for the difference of the two population means m₁ - m₂
Write a one paragraph report summarizing your conclusions from the analysis of these data.

Sexual Content Ads	n₁=53	X₁_bar=7.9	S₁=1.82
General Audience Ads	n₂=60	X₂_bar=4.3	S₂=1.53

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Ivo D. Dinov, Ph.D., Departments of Statistics and Neurology, UCLA School of Medicine