Syllabus. Statistics 100a: Introduction to Probability.
Prof. Rick Paik Schoenberg.
Fall 21.

Lectures: Tue and Thu 2-315pm MathScience 4000a.

No class Thu Nov 11 for Veteran's Day and no class Thu Nov25 for Thanksgiving.

Email: frederic@stat.ucla.edu

Course webpage: http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~frederic/100A/F21

I am maintaining the course website above. I do not maintain or put materials, other than the syllabus, on the ccle site.

Office hours: Tue 12-1230pm, 3873 Slichter.

Textbook: Schoenberg, F. (2016). An Introduction to Probability with Texas Hold'em Examples, 2nd ed. Taylor and Francis, New York.

Errors in the 1st edition of the textbook: http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~frederic/errors.html

Description: Exploration of the main topics in introductory probability theory, especially discrete probability problems, that are useful in a wide variety of scientific applications. Topics include conditional probability, expectation, combinatorics, laws of large numbers, central limit theorem, Bayes theorem, univariate distributions, conditional expectation, moment generating functions, and random walks. We will also examine computer simulation in depth and discuss computational approximations of solutions to complex problems using R, with examples of situations and concepts that arise naturally when playing Texas Hold'em and other games.

Grading:
Homework (15%).
Team computer project (5%).
Exam 1. (25%).
Exam 2. (25%).
Exam 3. (30%).

Exam 1 will be on Tue, Oct26, in class.
Exam 2 will be on Tue, Nov16, in class.
The computer project will be due by email on Sun Nov28, 8pm.
Exam 3 will be on the last class, Thu Dec2, in class.

For all exams, students will be allowed to use the textbook and any notes. Any calculator may be used for the exams. However, no internet searching or communication is allowed during the exams.

Gradegrubbing procedure: if you would like a question (or more than one question) reevaluated, submit your exam or homework and an emailed explanation of why you think you deserve more points and how many more points you think you deserve to your TA. The TA will then forward it to me if the TA thinks your request is reasonable, and I will consider it, and then respond to the TA who will then relay the information to you.

Computer Project (to be submitted by EMAIL to me):
Design and write an R function which takes as inputs your cards and other variables described in class, and which returns an integer indicating a fold or all-in bet. Your code, once submitted, will be in the public domain and free for others to read and use. Submit your R function to me by email at frederic@stat.ucla.edu .

Note: I will randomly assign you to teams in week 2 or 3. I will give you various examples that you can imitate for your project, but your code must in some way be different from the examples provided.

There will be 3 homework assignments, due before class. Homeworks must be done independently of other students and late homeworks will not be accepted. Homeworks must be submitted in the first 5 min of class, or slid under my office door any earlier time. 1 point is deducted for every 5 min late the hw is handed in after class begins. Each hw is graded out of 10 points.

There will generally be no make-up exams. Students who are unable to take an exam must consult with the instructor in advance. Those who cannot take an exam because of an emergency must meet with the instructor to make special arrangements. Students with learning disabilities must consult with the instructor by the 3rd lecture if special arrangements are required. Cheating will absolutely not be tolerated. All homework and exam problems are to be solved independently. Any students caught cheating will face appropriate University disciplinary action.

I am almost always open to questions, but one question I would like you not to ask me is "What did we do in class?" If you miss class, please get caught up on the notes from a fellow classmate. I also post the pdfs of my lectures on the course website.

Rough Outline, but we will deviate from this a bit:
Week 1-3: Introductory material, gambing addiction, rules of hold'em, counting problems, combinations, permutations, multiplication rules for counting, axioms of probability, addition and multiplication rules for probability, simulation, R, conditional probability, independence, odds ratios, Bayes' rule, random variables.
Weeks 4-6: Exam 1, probability mass functions, distribution functions, densities, expected value, pot odds, variance, standard deviation, discrete distributions (Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, geometric, negative binomial, hypergeometric), continuous distributions (uniform, normal, exponential).
Weeks 6-10: Exam 2, laws of large numbers, central limit theorem, checking and testing results, random walks, computer project, moment generating functions, review, exam 3.