Syllabus, Statistics 11
Introduction to
Statistical Methods for Business and Economics
Essentials
Course web page: www.stat.ucla.edu/~rgould/11s03
Instructor: Robert Gould
Office: Boelter 9410 (Warning: It's hard to find. Check web page for directions.)
Phone: 310-206-3381
Email: rgould@stat.ucla.edu
Required Texts: Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, 4th ed., Moore and McCabe. Data Analysis Lab Manual.
Important Web Pages:
http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~rgould/11s03 Page for this course
http://my.ucla.edu For grades, etc.
http://www.stat.ucla.edu/computing/labs/ for information about location and availability of Statistics computer labs.
http://www.computerlabs.ucla.edu for information about other computer labs on campus.
http://www.stat.ucla.edu Statistics Department page with links to course homepage.
Overview
A popular misconception about introductory Statistics courses is that they're all about formulas. In this class we'll disprove this notion by focusing on the fundamentals of Statistics.. Statistics is concerned with how to learn things about the world using incomplete information. Despite the popular notion that "you can say anything with Statistics", we'll see that this is not so. Statistics provides a very careful way of quantifying uncertainty and also serves to curb over-enthusiastic interpretations of data.
An important component of this course is the Data Analysis lab. You can buy the Data Analysis Lab Manual at the bookstore. In the lab you'll learn how to use a professional level Statistics package, STATA, to perform data analysis. The lab units do not correspond strictly to topics in class, but none-the-less give you an opportunity to see how the concepts discussed in class are applied in the real world.
Grades
Your grades will be based on the following components:
1) Homework. Homework is due every Friday and consists mostly of problems chosen from the textbook. You can see the assignment on the web page. The grade will be based on one or two problems chosen from all of the assigned problems. In most cases, you will not know which problems these are ahead of time and so should do them all. Homework will be worth 10% of your score. The lowest homework will be dropped. Late homework is not accepted for any reason. Late homework will be graded as a 0. If that's the only 0 you get, then it will be the score that is dropped. "Late" is defined as being "after class on the due date."
2) Lab Manual. Lab assignments will count as 10% of your grade. They are assigned at each lab meeting and due the following week. We will drop the lowest grade.
3) Midterms. There will be two midterms. The first is on Friday, April 25, the next on Wednesday, May 21. Each is worth 25% of your grade. No make up exams are allowed.
4) Final Exam, Friday, June 13, 11:30-2:30. The final is worth 30% of your grade. No alternative times will be made for the final, so plan to be there at that date and time.
Alternative Grading Scheme: Alternatively, the midterms will be weighted at 20% and the final 40% and you will graded based on whichever weighting gives you the highest numerical score.
Grades will be posted on my.ucla. It is your responsibility to make sure your grades are recorded correctly and that my.ucla. correctly represents your work.
Your final grade is based on the total number of points you receive after appropriate weighting. The letter grades will be set so that the median score is worth a C+. Those who score substantially higher than the median will receive a substantially higher grade. It is very difficult for me to tell you what letter grade is at any given moment of the class. However, if you need to know (for sports or other activities) I can make an estimate upon request.
Regrades
In the event that a mistake is made in the grading of your exam, there is only one method for correcting that mistake.
1) Write a note (nearly) explaining identifying where on the test the error was made, and explaining what the error is.
2) Submit the note along with your exam to me.
3) This must be done within 48 hours after I have
returned the exams to the class.
Please be aware that we do this only to catch mistakes in our grading, and not to discuss philosophical differences in how the grading should have been conducted in an ideal world.
Class Participation
The pacing and content of this class is determined in large part on student participation. Questions asked in class and in office hours will affect the content and speed. Please do not hesitate to ask questions either in class or office hours. You might ask a question because something mentioned interests you and you want to know more about it, or something confuses you. It might surprise you to know that to some extent, my job as an educator is to confuse you. And your job as a learner is to sort through the confusion. So don't get frustrated when you get confused; ask questions!
Labs
At the moment, (I might change my mind, depending on how the quarter unfolds), we'll be doing the following labs (refer to your Lab Manual):
1) Loggin in/Getting Started
2) Visual Display
3) Coding and Birthdays
4) Effectiveness of Captopril
5) Body Temperature
6) Minimum Wage and Employment
7) School Expenditures and SAT scores
Approximate Lecture and Reading Schedule
All readings come from the textbook
Date
|
Lecture Topic |
Assigned Reading |
NOTES |
|
March 31 |
Introduction |
Chapter 3.1 - 3.2 |
|
|
April 2 |
Summarizing Data Graphically |
Chapter 1.1, 2.1 |
|
|
Aril 4 |
Summarizing Data Numerically |
Chapter 1.2 |
|
|
April 7 |
Summarizing Data Numerically |
Chapter 1.2 |
|
|
April 9 |
The Normal Distribution |
Chapter 1.3 |
|
|
April 11 |
Bivariate relations |
Chapters 2.1,2.2 |
|
|
April 14 |
Simple Regression |
2.3,2.4 |
|
|
April 16 |
Populations |
3.3-3.4 |
|
|
April 18 |
Probability |
4.1-4.2 |
|
|
April 21 |
Probability |
4.5 |
note that we skip over 4.3 and 4.4 |
|
April 23 |
REVIEW |
|
|
|
April 25 |
Midterm 1 |
|
|
|
April 28 |
Random Variables |
4.3-4.4 |
|
|
April 30 |
Random Variables |
4.3-4.4 |
Pay close attention to "Rules for Means"
and "Rules for Variances" |
|
May 2 |
Binomial RVs |
5.1 |
|
|
May 5 |
Estimating proportions |
5.1 |
|
|
May 7 |
Normal approximation |
5.1 |
|
|
May 9 |
Estimating Means |
5.2 |
|
|
May 12 |
Confidence Intervals |
6.1 |
|
|
May 14 |
Hypothesis Testing |
6.2 |
|
|
May 16 |
t-tests and caution |
7.1 |
|
|
May 19 |
Review |
|
|
|
May 21 |
Midterm |
|
Note: midterm is on a wednesday |
|
May 23 |
Hypothesis testing |
6.2 |
even though this is the Friday before a holiday, this
is one of the most important topics of the quarter |
|
May 26 |
HOLIDAY |
|
|
|
May 28 |
t test and caution |
7.1 |
|
|
May 30 |
Inference for proportions |
8.1 |
|
|
June 2 |
TBA |
|
|
|
June 4 |
TBA |
|
|
|
June 6 |
Review |
|
|
|
June 13 |
Final: 11:30-2:30 |
|
|