Statistics is a discipline employed by a wide variety of people in a variety of professions. Briefly, it is the study of the use of uncertainty to analyze data. Uncertainty occurs almost everywhere, from measurement errors, to unpredictable cardgames, to unknowable reactions to drugs. Part of the job of the statistician is to see past this noise of randomness to detect and observe the underlying phenomenon. Thus, statistics is used to answer questions such as Do power lines cause cancer? Does the DNA sample match the suspect's? Are SAT scores a good predictor of collegiate success?
Statistics rests solidly on a mathematical foundation composed mostly of probability, and so we'll be spending a substantial part of this course on probability theory. This is a mathematics course, and the prerequisites demand a background in multivariable calculus, so we will be treating "mathematical issues." But we will also keep an eye on applications, and be concerned about good and bad applications of statistics (although honestly the bad applications are far more entertaining.) A word of warning: it will be at least five weeks before we can begin to apply our mathematical foundation to some actual data.
The ability to clearly communicate your ideas and solutions is absolutely necessary to your success in mathematics and the industrial world. Forcing yourself to think about how you will organize your solution can also assist you in solving a problem. For this reason, we will emphasize clear, written solutions, as well as correct answers.
Prerequisites The prerequisites for this course are Math 32B (Calculus of Several Variables) and Math 33B (Infinite Series).
Computer You have been given a computer account. There will be a statistics package to help you crunch numbers. Also, you'll find the homepage a very useful resource for this class.
Materials You need the book An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and its Applications, by Richard J. Larsen and Morris L. Marx. If you own a computer and a modem, you will find BruinOnline extremely helpful, but this is not required. BruinOnline is sold at the ASUCLA store for about $29. If you don't own a computer, you should still get a Bruin Online account for use through campus machines. You will also need a calculator, but nothing fancy is required.
Class Discussion Class discussion is a very important part of learning, particularly in a relatively small class such as this. You should be quite unhesitant in asking for clarifications or in trying to dispell confusion. Your questions will not only help you, but will help the others in the class. Occaisonally, we will do group exercises, and the groups will be expected to report their solutions to the entire class.
Grades There will be one midterm, a slew of quizzes, and a final. In addition, there will be one writing assignment, due in rough draft form in the sixth week, and in final draft in the tenth week. Homework will be assigned weekly.
If it improves your grade, I will weight the midterm 25% and the final 40%.
Late/makeup Policy There will be no make-up exams. Late homework will not be accepted. Please write these dates down and turn in your homework on time so that there will be no problems.
Homework Homework will be assigned every Friday and due in class the following Friday. Your homework should be clearly labelled with your name, student ID number, section number, and the date. Problems should be clearly identified. You are responsible for providing a clear and lucid explanation of your work, as well as an answer! If the grader has trouble understanding you, or even worse, cannot read your writing, then he or she has the option of giving you a 0. You are encouraged to work with others, but the work you turn in must be your own.
Midterms and Final The exams in this class are all loosely based on, perhaps ``inspired by" is a better phrase, the homework. If you understand the homework, then you are prepared for the exams. Do not expect homework problems to appear verbatim, however. Typically, there will be one or two more challenging problems on each exam designed to see how you can apply the concepts to a novel situation.
Homepage There is a website for this class that will serve as the primary source for basic class information such as exam dates, office h hours, exam results, etc. It also contains a bulletin board, that allows you to post messages to the class. You can use this for help on homework, or to discusss topics in the class. The address is http://www.stat.ucla.edu/ #<45#>rgould/154aw97.
A final note Past experience has shown that success in this class is highly correlated with doing the homework, reading the text before class, participating in class discussions, and asking questions in class.