Math 50: Intro to Statistics Fall '96
Robert Gould
Office: MS 6151 x6-3381 Office Hours:MW: 1-1:50,TH 1-1:50, or by appointment
Purpose of Course Statistics is the study of uncertainty. Statistics is used to estimate quantities, (``At what rate does an Alzheimer's patient's health decline?") to make predictions, (``At what level will the stock market close tomorrow?") to make decisions, (``Should a factory produce more of object A or object B?") and often simply to describe complex data sets (``The average height of 12 year old boys in the U.S. is..."). The use of statistics is ubiquitious in our society, appearing everywhere from baseball games to the evening news. But it is not always clear how these statistics should be interpreted.
There's an old saying that numbers never lie. Perhaps, but another bit of folk wisdom (attributed to Mark Twain, I believe) says that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. As a compromise, maybe its true that the numbers don't lie, but the words people use to describe the numbers do. Whatever the truth, it is true that people will use statistics to persuade you to accept their point of view. And for every statistic supporting one viewpoint, you can bet that there's another supporting the opposing point. How does an educated person sort his or her way through the quagmire? Part of the purpose of this course is to provide you with some technical ammo you need in order to be ``statistically literate". A large part of this uses, fortunately, common sense, and through studying some statistical case studies you can develop the statistical intuition necessary to know when someone is misusing statistics to support an unsupportable claim.
Grading Policy Your grade will be based on
Note that both the midterms AND the final exam are required. Homework is also required. It will be assigned daily, and collected on Friday. Homework will be graded 0 (not turned in or many missing problems), 1 (mostly complete), and 2 (complete). If you have a total of 17 or more, then your letter grade will be raised a half-grade (e.g. B to B+). If you have a 9 or less, it will be lowered a half-grade. Any other score results in no change. The one exception to this is for students whose score on quizzes and exams gives them an A; an A+ will be given only for exemplary achievement.
Grades are curved so that the median score in the class is between a C and B-, depending on the overall class performance. Midterms are not given a letter grade, and so I can't tell you what your letter grade is based on your midterms alone. However, if you need to know for a letter of recommendation or application of some sort, I'll make an estimate.
Homework A few problems will be assigned from the book at each lecture. These problems are designed to emphasize points made in lecture, and I strongly recommend you do them before the next lecture. Homework will be picked up on Friday in lecture. Late homework will not be accepted for ANY reason.
When doing the homework, you should focus not just on the technique that gets you the right answer, but also on the reasoning behind the problem. Ask yourself what the point is behind each question, and try to relate the problem to the larger context presented in class.
I can't guarantee that all of your homeworks will be returned in time for you to study for the midterms. If you are concerned about this, I recommend you make copies before turning them in.
Quizzes
Quizzes will be given each week in section. No late or make-up quizzes are allowed. Your TA is responsible for administering these, so please take up any questions you have with your TA.
Midterms The midterms are on October 25 (a Friday) and November 20 (a Wednesday). If, for some reason, you know you cannot make those dates, you must see me before October 7. Make-up exams are allowed only in extremely exceptional circumstances.
Midterms emphasize concepts discussed in class and covered in the homework. You will see problems that do not look exactly like the homework problems, although the homework is the best preparation for the midterms.
Final
The Final Exam is on Friday, December 13, at the ungodly hour of 8am. Students often ask to take the exam early, and these requests are VERY difficult to grant, so mark your calendars now and plan to be there on the 13th. Remember this when you buy your plane tickets.
Regrades
Students frequently have complaints or questions about grading on their midterms. The rules are as follows: you must submit your questions in writing by the NEXT lecture after the midterm is returned. This requires that you attend lecture so that you can pick your midterm up. Your written questions should clearly point out which items are being challenged, and why. Include a copy of your exam.
The same policy holds for quizzes, but here you have one week, and don't have to submit your questions in writing.
Please don't hesitate to ask questions or challenge the grading AFTER the deadline; but don't expect the grade to be changed. It's important that you understand the material, so please feel free to discuss it at any time.
Materials
The required text is The Basic Practice of Statistics, David S. Moore, 1995, Freeman and Company. Unfortunately, this is the first quarter we've used the book, so you probably won't find it as a used book. If I can put it on reserve at College Library, I will. But at this point in time I don't know if that's possible.
You should get a Bruin Online account. These are free at OAC or the UCLA Computer Store. For a slight fee (about $30) you can get software to run this on your home computer, or you can use campus computers for no charge. This will allow you to access the homepage for this class, as well as retrieve useful information from the library and other sources.
HOMEPAGE: You are responsible for information that appears on the homepage for this course. Check the homepage as your first stop for answering questions, particularly questions about this course. The address is http://www.stat.ucla.edu/~rgould/50f96.
One Final Word Never hesitate to ask a question, either in lecture, section, during office hours, or over the homepage. Contrary to popular opinion, there are stupid questions, but I promise to never let you know if you ask one, and promise that there's an (intangible) reward even for stupid questions. So feel free to ask, because the worst that can happen is you can have it answered.