"The time may not be very remote when it will be understood that for complete initiation as an efficient citizen of one of the new great complex world wide states that are now developing, it is as necessary to be able to compute, to think in averages and maxima and minima, as it is now to be able to read and to write." H.G. Wells, Mankind in the Making
This course highlights Statistical methods favored in Economics, but we will also spend much time on some fundamental issues and concepts in Statistics. These include variability, uncertainty (which is maybe the same thing as variability), causal inference, reliability, presentation of results, inference. Perhaps the most common Statistical tool in Econ is that of linear regression, and we'll spend some time on this, although mostly you'll be introduced to this topic in later courses.
Another popular opinion is that Statistics has a lot of math. Actually, one can do quite a bit with only a little math, and this course will not make any particularly demanding challenges on your math skills. I will assume, however, that you have had one year of Calculus. This is not so much because we will be doing much calculus (we won't do any), but because there's a certain level of mathematical sophistication that comes with a year of Calculus, and this level of sophistication is necessary to easily understand some of the more abstract concepts.
Quizzes will be given each week in section, beginning the second week of class. No late or make-up quizzes are allowed. Your TA is responsible for administering these, so please take up any questions you have with your TA. The purpose of the quizzes is to encourage you to keep on top of the material and also to point out any misconceptions that might be plaguing you before they trip you up on one of the exams.
Midterms emphasize concepts discussed in class and covered in the homework. You will see problems that do not look exactly like the homework problems, although the homework is the best preparation for the midterms.
The Final Exam is on Wednesday, December 16, 8am-11am. Students often ask to take the exam early, and these requests are VERY difficult to grant, so mark your calendars now and plan to be there on the 16th. Remember this when you buy your plane tickets.
About once a week you will be assigned a ``lab'' to do on the computer. You may use your own computer or the computers in the Science Learning Center (Young Hall, 4th floor, South wing). You already have an account set up. Your login ID is the first letter of your first name followed by your last name. (For example, mine would be rgould.) Your password is your student ID. There are assistants in the lab to help you get started. I will assume you are doing your assignments in Excell, but you are welcome to use any package that you can to produce the required results. You will also need to run either Netscape or Microsoft Internet Explorer.
You get two points for each lab you turn in. If you turn in a lab late, you lose a point. If the lab is more than one week late, you lose two points. At the end of the quarter you will select three labs and turn these in as part of your final exam. They will count as 10 points each.
Labs will be due on Friday, along with the homework. (But please turn in separately.) Keep a copy, in case the one you turn in gets lost. Remember, you will have to turn in three of the labs again at the end of the year.
The labs will give you experience working with data. You can continue to work on them all quarter long as you learn more about techniques and issues. The three labs you turn in should be good examples of your understand of analyzing and presenting data.
Late homework will not be accepted for ANY reason. Late HW is any HW turned in after 10:30am on the day it is due.
I can't guarantee that all of your homeworks will be returned in time for you to study for the midterms or final. If you are concerned about this, I recommend you make copies before turning them in.
Grades are curved so that the median score in the class is a B-. Midterms are not given a letter grade, and so I can't tell you what your letter grade is based on your midterms alone. However, if you need to know for a letter of recommendation or application of some sort, I'll make an estimate. Just to emphasize this point: your grade is based on your total points, and so looking at any single exam (or quiz) will not be that helpful in helping you predict your grade. The best thing is to look at your total points with respect to the median total points of the class.
Students frequently have complaints or questions about grading on their midterms. The rules are as follows: you must submit your questions in writing by the NEXT lecture after the midterm is returned. This requires that you attend lecture so that you can pick your midterm up. Your written questions should clearly point out which items are being challenged, and why. Include a copy of your exam.
The same policy holds for quizzes, but here you have one week, and don't have to submit your questions in writing.
Please don't hesitate to ask questions or challenge the grading AFTER the deadline; but don't expect the grade to be changed. It's important that you understand the material, so please feel free to discuss it at any time.
The required text is Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, Third Edition, David S. Moore and George P. McCabe. We will be using Excel to do some work, and if you are unfamiliar with Excel, you might want to pick up the Excel Manual for Moore and MCCabe's Introduction to the Practice of Statistics by Fred M. Hoppe. This second text is recommended, not required.
You should get a Bruin Online account. These are free at OAC or the UCLA Computer Store. For a slight fee (about $30) you can get software to run this on your home computer, or you can use campus computers for no charge. This will allow you to access the homepage for this class, as well as retrieve useful information from the library and other sources.
HOMEPAGE: You are responsible for information that appears on the homepage for this course. Check the homepage as your first stop for answering questions, particularly questions about this course. The address is http://www.stat.ucla.edu/courses/undergraduate
One Final Word Never hesitate to ask a question, either in lecture, section, during office hours, or over the homepage. Contrary to popular opinion, there are stupid questions, but I promise to never let you know if you ask one, and promise that there's an (intangible) reward even for stupid questions. So feel free to ask, because the worst that can happen is you can have it answered.