Stats 201C    Advanced Modeling and Inference

Main topics:

(1) Bayesian hierarchical models, prior and posterior distributions, hyper-priors, posterior predictive distribution, shrinkage.
(2) Missing data problems, the EM algorithm, data augmentation, incomplete multivariate normal data.
(3) Mixture modeling, clustering algorithms, Dirichlet process.
(4) Hidden Markov models, dynamic programming, forward summation and backward sampling, Kalman filter.
(5) Bayesian networks, graphical model, DAGs, belief propagation, structural inference, model selection and model averaging.

Instructor: Qing Zhou, Department of Statistics, zhou@stat.ucla.edu
Lectures: MWF 12-12:50pm, MS 5203. Office Hours: Wed 4-6pm, MS 8979.
TA: Gong Chen, gongchen@ucla.edu, Office Hours: Thursday 4-6pm, MS 8359.

References

1) Gelman, A. et al. Bayesian data analysis. (Second edition, 2004).
2) Schafer, J.L. Analysis of incomplete multivariate data. (First edition1997)
3) Rabiner, L.R. (1989) A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 77: 257-286.
4) Pearl, J. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference. (2000) UK: Cambridge University Press.

Syllabus

Lecture Notes:    1a    1b    2a    2b    3a    3b    4a    4b    5a    5b

Homework:    Hw1 (Dataset 1)    Hw2    Hw3 (Dataset 2)    Hw4 (Dataset 3)    Hw5 (Dataset 4)

Homework solutions:  Hw1    Hw2    Hw3    Hw4    HW5

R-code for selected HW problems:     Hw1Q3    Hw2Q2    Hw3Q3    Hw4Q2,Q3    Hw5Q2