The paranoid traveller
Michael Godin Arlotto (154aamga@pic.ucla.edu)
Mon, 20 Nov 95 15:10:16 -0800
The paranoid traveler is assuming that the probability that he will bring a
bomb
onto the plane is equal to the probability that someone else will bring a bomb
onto the plane. If this were true, then the probability of two bombs would in
fact be really really small. However, they are not equal. The probability
that the paranoid traveler will bring a bomb onto the plane is equal to one.
So, the probability for the two bombs on his flight will be:
P(the paranoid travelers bomb & some other bomb)=
P(paranoid's bomb)*P(some other bomb)=1*P(some other bomb).
Therefore, the paranoid traveler's decision to bring a bomb on board will not
effect the probablility that someone else will bring one on.
So, what do you think of that?
Mike
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