The Paranoid Traveller
Michael Godin Arlotto (154aamga@pic.ucla.edu)
Mon, 27 Nov 95 15:35:53 -0800
This message is in regard to Ben Gunderson's posting. First of all my name is
Michael Godin Arlotto or just Mike for short. Secondly I had a few questions
about your comments on this essay. You stated that "adding another
bomb...increases the probability that any given person will be on a plane with
a bomb on it, but by bringing his own bomb he is guaranteeing a bomb on the
plane." I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. The events that some
terrorist will bring a bomb and that the paranoid traveller brings a bomb are
independent. Then by definition, the probability that one brings a bomb on
board will not affect the other probability.
Later in the essay, you state "so the probability of having a bomb on the plane
without Mr. Paranoid's bomb is equal to the probability of there being two
bombs on the plane including his given bomb." Do you mean to say if Mr.
Paranoid does not bring his bomb then the probability of one bomb on his flight
is equal to the probability of two bombs? This seems very wrong. It wasn't
exactly clear to me in these few instances what you were trying to say.
Talk to you later,
Mike
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