Monty Hall problem
Michael Godin Arlotto (154aamga@pic.ucla.edu)
Sat, 02 Dec 95 16:37:38 -0800
This is to clear up the questions regarding one of my entries. First of all in
my problem I am making several assumptions. I am assuming Monty Hall is
nuetral and will not attempt to influence the outcome. Secondly, I am assuming
the contestant will follow one of two strategies for winning. These strategies
do not have anything to do with the host. So the contestant has decided before
he picks any door which strategy to follow, either he will always switch doors
in the second round or he will always keep his original door. I hope that
clears up the problem with the strategies.
There was also a question about two probabilities for one outcome. Once you
have picked a door and Monty has asked you if you would like to switch, you
either have the door with the car or you do not. If you have the door with car
then the P(car)=1 if you don't then P(car)=0. In this round you are not
selecting between two doors--if you were then the P(car)=1/2. But this idea
fails to recognize the fact that you had a choice in the first round. So
P(car) is either one or zero.
I hope this clears things up a little, if not I'll talk to you later.
Mike
Back to the Chatroom Homepage...
Back to the Stats 154A Homepage...
Back to the listings...
Send a message...
This archive was generated by hypermail 1.02.