Monty Hall revisited
Michael Godin Arlotto (154aamga@pic.ucla.edu)
Mon, 04 Dec 95 12:40:04 -0800
I wanted to post this message yesturday, but the lab was closed. So here it
goes. I wasn't exactly clear with my explanation. There isn't really two
probabilities for a car ( either one or zero like I explained). The
probabilites I was trying to explain was as follows:
P(car|1st choice is a car) = 1 if keeping your first choice
P(car|1st choice is a goat) = 0 if keeping your first choice
P(car|1st choice is a car) = 0 if always switching
P(car|1st choice is a goat) = 1 if always switching.
These are the probabilities I was refering to. But there still will not be a
50/50 shot of winning. You must remember that you had a choice in the first
round. We did not start with a choice between 2 doors. We started with a
choice between 3 doors, one was removed, and we were asked if we would like to
switch. So by maintaining that there is a 50/50 shot you are ignoring your
first choice.
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