Paranoid Traveler

Ben Gunderson (beng@ucla.edu)
Mon, 27 Nov 95 18:08:50 -0800

In my essay I stated "adding another bomb...increases the probability
that any given person will be on a plane with a bomb on it, but by
bringing his own bomb he is guaranteeing a bomb on the
plane." I should clerafy this. Lets say that there are n bombs on m
planes where n<<<m for any given day. The probality of a plane having a
bomb on it is n/m. If Mr. Paranoid brings a new bomb into the pitcher then
the probality of a plane having a bomb would be (n+1)/m, so the probalitiy
of some other traveler having a bomb on his or her plane would be greater
with Mr. Paranoid's bomb than without.

A second question was brought up by mike as well regarding the
statement, "so the probability of having a bomb on the plane without Mr.
Paranoid's bomb is equal to the probability of there being two bombs on
the plane including his given bomb." What I should and will say is insted
of saying the plane, say Mr Paranoid's plane. I ment to say from Mr.
Paranoids point of view his bomb will make no difference in the fact that
another bomb is on board.

I hope I have clarified these question, I thank you for your input,
and the chance to make another post.

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