Ask Marilyn...
Kenneth K. Yeh (yeh@typhoon.seas.ucla.edu)
Sat, 02 Feb 1980 22:07:36 -0800
I think it is neither to our advantage or disadvantage to take the
switch since we do not know the motives of the host. And since we do
not know the motives of the host, we cannot make any reasonable
assumptions about whether the host is trying to help us or trick us.
Originally, the probability of guessing the door with the car is 1/3.
However, since the host opens one of them for us and reveals a goat, our
chances of winning the car is 1/2. Since our odds of winning are 1/2
regardless of whether we switch or not, it is neither advantageous or
disadvantageous to switch.
-Kenneth
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