Ask Marilyn II...
Kenneth K. Yeh (yeh@typhoon.seas.ucla.edu)
Sat, 02 Feb 1980 22:20:45 -0800
Ok, if we look at this problem subjectively...there are some ideas we
should consider. First of all, since the host knows which door contains
the car and is benevolent and KNOWS we've picked the correct door, then
why would he offer us a switch. However, if we have picked the wrong
door, then it would seem logical that the benevolent host would offer us
a switch and possibly win the car. Secondly, if the host is malevolent
and wishes us to lose, it would seem unlikely for him to offer us a
second chance at the car if we had picked the incorrect door initially.
However, if we picked the correct door, a malevolent host would try to
persuade us to switch. In these four cases, only two apply since the
host offered us a chance to switch. A benevolent host would want us to
switch and win the car while the malevolent host would want us to switch
and lose. The host cannot be neutral because if he was, he would not
open up a door and offer us a chance to switch. So, depending on whether
you believe the host is benevolent or not, you should decide for yourself
whether to switch or not.
-Kenneth
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